Few could have predicted Mark Cavendish shacking up with Alexandre Vinokourov this winter, but could the Manx Missile’s Astana lifeline turn out to be a marriage made in heaven? After the B&B Hotels implosion, the 37-year-old was on the brink of signing for second-tier Human Powered Health before Astana cleared a Superman-shaped space in their roster to keep Cavendish’s WorldTour dream alive.
Barring disaster, Cavendish should now have the chance to become the outright leading stage winner in the Tour de France in July – a record he currently shares with Eddy Merckx. If that remains the ultimate goal, Cavendish, a born winner, will need to show some mettle along the way to guarantee his place on the plane to Bilbao.
Six reasons why success is in store
1. Astana need the wins
Cav’s five wins last season matched Astana’s entire haul for 2022. After flirting with relegation, the Kazakh team will hope Cavendish can amass enough points to keep them safe. Historically, they have never had a pure sprinter on their books – unless you count Borut Božič, who never stood atop the podium during his four-year stint. But with Miguel Ángel López sacked and Aleksandr Vlasov no longer around, the team don’t even have a GC option beyond Alexey Lutsenko. Arguably, Astana need Cav as much as he needs them.
2. It only needs to click once
For Cavendish to break the record – and for Astana to be ever associated with that historic landmark – the stars must align just the once in July. That means ample time to prepare for the Tour, where all eggs will be in the basket belonging to the most experienced sprinter in the peloton.
3. No one sprinter is dominating races
Put simply, there is no all-conquering fastman like Mario Cippolini or Alessandro Petacchi in their pomp. In fact, Cavendish himself is the nearest there is to a lasting dominant force. When given the nod over Cav for QuickStep last year, Fabio Jakobsen won only once, while the only sprinter to double up was Jasper Philipsen. Opportunities will arise.
4. Cav can now win differently
His win in the British National Championships last June was arguably the best all-round performance of his career. Not only did he close down moves and go on the offensive from the outset, he eventually won on a lumpy course from a select breakaway, winning a three-up sprint in Castle Douglas. And he did all that without the help of teammates.
5. Life is a Bol of cherries
Cavendish doesn’t arrive at Astana on his own. Rangy rouleur Cees Bol also joins from Team DSM. The Dutchman piloting Cav behind Estonia’s Martin Laas and Russian man-mountain Gleb Syritsa is the best train Astana has ever had.
6. A return to Bordeaux
Stage 7 of the Tour is a near pancake-flat 170km ride to Bordeaux, the most British of French cities, last visited on the Tour in 2010 when the winner was none other than Cavendish, who swooped to his 14th stage win. It’s one of seven stages that could end up in a mass bunch sprint, although one of just two days that are wholly flat.
Four reasons why Cavendish may struggle
1. Not so Specialized any more
Cav’s most successful years have come when he’s on an S-Works. We all know how fast things went south during his season grappling with a Merida when at Bahrain-McLaren. How will Cavendish take to his new Wilier Triestina? On top of this, Astana failed to lure Cav’s coach, Vasilia Anastopoulos, away from Soudal-QuickStep.
2. Out of his comfort zone
Cavendish thrives on stability and routine. Joining Astana and their patchwork roster of riders – not to mention the team’s Italian influence and Kazakh backing, plus all that rapping – could prove too much.
3. So many other good sprinters
Sam Bennett, Dylan Groenewegen, Fernando Gaviria, Fabio Jakobsen and Biniam Girmay have already made a splash this year – with Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel yet to swap mud for tarmac. Add Caleb Ewan, Mads Pedersen, Tim Merlier, Pascal Ackermann, Arnaud Démare and Jasper Philipsen to the mix and the depth of the sprinting pool is clear. If one rider isn’t head and shoulders above the rest, many are on an equal footing. Cav may find himself drowned out.
4. Skyfall at Astana
Former Sky riders have hardly pulled up trees at Astana. Can Cav buck the trend as he follows in the tyre tracks of Gianni Moscon, Joe Dombrowski and David de la Cruz? What’s more, Cavendish is the first and only British rider in Astana’s 18-year history – representing a monumental plunge into the unknown for a rider who, at almost 38, may not be the most adaptable of souls.
Mark Cavendish’s 2023 so far
Cavendish’s early season form so far in 2023 has been mixed. He has no wins so far across the Tour of Oman, UAE Tour and the opening few stages of Tirreno-Adriatico, though third place behind Merlier and Ewan on the opening stage of the UAE Tour at least hints at some form.
The reality, though, is Cav’s 2023 season only needs a single win in July to be judged a success, and it’s simply too early to gauge how much of a long shot that truly is.
At the same time, if the Manx Missile does line up alongside his Astana teammates for the Tour’s opening stage in Bilbao on 1st July, we wouldn’t bet against it.
Check out the 2023 Tour de France route to see Cav’s chances of becoming the GOAT.