Mark your calendars, take your screenshots, it’s time for us all to show how stupid we are with our Tour de France 2023 predictions. All strongest minds have bashed their heads against walls for the good part of five minutes to figure out who they think will win the Tour’s four jerseys this July, as well as one extra prediction.
Will Strickson, deputy web editor
As the one compiling this article I’m therefore the main character, I will also be the most correct.
Yellow jersey: Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
Yes it’s boring, but I’m concerned that Tadej Pogačar has been rushed back from his wrist injury too soon and one bit of bad luck will derail his Tour. He’ll bounce back and rekindle his Primož Roglič rivalry at the Vuelta. After winning the World Championships in Glasgow. I also correctly predicted Vingegaard would win last year so I’ll have to back him again; Pogačar will only gain bonus seconds and the odd one or two extras in punchy finishes, so four summit finishes won’t be enough to overhaul the two minutes he’ll lose to Vingegaard on the Col de la Loze.
Green jersey: Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck)
Wout van Aert playing down his chances, we’ve heard it all before I know, except this time he says it’s because his wife might give birth to their second child before the Tour is out. Step up the best sprinter in the race Jasper Philipsen. With Mathieu van der Poel leading him out he’ll be unbeatable in the sprints and will get himself into the odd breakaway to clean up intermediates. Disaster no more, Netflix is calling again.
Polka Dot jersey: Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost)
Speaking of Netflix, we’ll also get a redemption story from Neilson Powless in season two. After blowing his chances of a stage to an unbeatable Tom Pidcock in 2022, the American is another year older, wiser and stronger. He started the season off in incredible form and you know EF love the polka dot jersey.
White jersey: Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers)
C-Rod, Godríguez, Movistar’s 2024 team leader, Carlos Rodríguez is Ineos’s current best GC talent. He had a strong Vuelta in 2022 eventually dropping from a stable top five to seventh overall, but he’s still 22 years old and still developing, with the might of Ineos behind him, Rodríguez will benefit from Pogačar’s misfortunes to bag the youth classification ahead of teammate Pidcock.
Wild card: Tactically, Movistar will be perfect
Gone are the days of the trident spearheading Movistar’s tactics, gone are the days when theirs was the cycling Netflix series, gone are the days of Movistar the laughing stock, this team means business and you won’t see the same mistakes from them this time out. Enric Mas has shown that he can be the closest competitor to our two favourites in the past and he’ll follow them all the way to another top five on GC. He won’t need any team sacrifices for it, barring the odd pull from Ruben Guerreiro and Gorka Izagirre, who will each get their breakaway opportunities anyway. Izagirre and Alex Aranburu will be let off the leash in search of early glory at their home Grand Départ, with Aranburu taking a famous Basque yellow jersey from the Stage 2 breakaway. Finally, American Matteo Jorgenson will feature heavily on the toughest days and win himself a massive mountain stage as well as some redemption for his nation.
Martin James, production editor
A true keyboard warrior, you won’t see Martin’s name on many bylines but he’s behind them all, laughing at our bad takes as he corrects typos. Who’s laughing now, Mirtin?
Yellow jersey: Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
I hate just going with the obvious choice (or in this case, one of the two obvious choices), but in GC terms this really should be a two-way showdown. And despite Tadej Pogačar saying his wrist injury in April actually helped him in his preparation for the Tour, it feels like his Danish rival has a narrow advantage on paper.
Green jersey: Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma)
He won it last year by nearly 200 points. And while he’s maybe not on quite the same level form-wise in 2023 compared to the previous two seasons, that’s only by his own ridiculously high standards.
Polka Dot jersey: Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FdJ)
In truth it’s more likely that either Vingegaard or Pogačar will take polka dots as a yellow jersey side-hustle (or a consolation prize), but you know Pinot will give it his all to close off his long Tour career by claiming a prize he’s never actually won.
White jersey: Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
The jersey Tadej Pogačar probably cares the least about is the one he’s almost guaranteed to win just by turning up. When it comes to the GC, there’s simply no other eligible rider in this year’s field anywhere near his level.
Wild card: Pello Bilbao winning Stage 1
How wonderful would it be to see a stage starting in Bilbao and finishing in Bilbao won by a chap called Bilbao? Nominative determinism at its very finest.
Pete Muir, editor
Pete is Cyclist, the man behind the mag has been in charge since 2012 and has been a cycling fan since he was wee. That means he’ll have thick enough skin when everyone takes the piss out of his picks.
Yellow jersey: Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
I said this last year and got it totally wrong. But last year, everyone – including Pogačar – thought he was invincible. Now that he’s been exposed as human, he won’t make the same mistakes again. And he’s still the best cyclist of the modern era.
Green jersey: Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma)
It’s hard to look past the Belgian. These days, the competition for the points jersey is too attritional for the pure sprinters, who will all be focussed on stage wins and will cancel each other out. Only Van Aert can pick up points on almost every stage going.
Polka Dot jersey: Esteban Chaves (EF Education-EasyPost)
Why not? EF has some strong riders this year – Richard Carapaz, Rigoberto Urán, Neilson Powless, Magnus Cort – but their chances of winning GC are slim, so the KOM jersey would be a good consolation. And Chaves might just be given the room to go for it.
White jersey: Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
Well, if he’s going to win the Tour, he can’t help but bring the best young rider into the bargain. He’s still only 24, dammit. Time seems to work differently for Pogacar compared to everyone else.
Wild card: Egan Bernal to take stage win
This won’t be Ineos Grenadiers’ Tour by any stretch, but for one glorious moment, Bernal will remind us that he used to be the future of cycling.
Robyn Davidson, editorial assistant
The writer of Cyclist‘s weekly Pro Log pro cycling news updates, Robyn should be on the button with her predictions. Spoiler: she won’t be, because she didn’t submit her’s in time, so here’s what I think she’ll predict.
Yellow jersey: Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ)
Thibaut’s biggest fan.
Green jersey: Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ)
#TheGOAT
Polka dot jersey: Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ)
This one is actually semi-realistic.
White jersey: Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ)
He’s 33 but who cares?
Wild card: Thibaut Pinot beats Mark Cavendish in a sprint on the Champs-Élysées
Peace breaks out nationwide as France goes into a year of celebration and everyone dresses up as goats.